Austin real estate update for October 29, 2025: 16,284 active listings, 59.4% price drops, 5.77 months of inventory, median price $435,000, Activity Index 19.6%.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for October 29, 2025.
Market Overview
The Austin housing market continues its post-peak adjustment, balancing between stabilization and a slow return to long-term norms. Active listings are at 16,284, down 1,862 units from the high point of June 2025 but still 15.1% higher than this time last year. This growth in supply is creating more breathing room for buyers, while sellers are adjusting expectations amid increased competition. The fact that 59.4% of all listings have seen at least one price reduction underscores how pricing strategies are evolving to meet a more cautious buyer pool.
For context, cumulative new listings from January through October total 44,749 — a 4.8% increase year-over-year and 23.1% above the long-term average. More homes are coming to market, but they’re taking longer to sell. Pending listings are down 3.2% year-over-year, sitting at 3,963. That means while inventory is expanding, demand isn’t keeping pace at the same rate.
Housing Prices
The most visible part of this market reset is pricing. The median sold price across Austin sits at $435,000, down $115,000 from the May 2022 peak of $550,000 — a 20.91% nominal decline. The average sold price in October is $596,820, a 12.48% drop from the same 2022 high of $681,939. Adjusted for inflation, the real decline is closer to 29%, reflecting how much purchasing power has shifted in just over three years.
While these price declines may sound sharp, they represent a normalization following years of unsustainable growth. The 25-year compound appreciation rate for the Austin market remains at a steady 4.838%, which is right in line with historical real estate performance nationwide. If appreciation returns to that long-term average, Austin’s median price could recover to its prior peak by late 2030.
At a micro level, price behavior varies by segment. The top 25th percentile of homes saw prices rise 5.74% year-over-year, showing resilience in higher-end markets where supply remains limited. Meanwhile, the bottom 25th percentile saw a 2.61% price drop and a 4.00% decline in price per square foot, confirming that affordability challenges are still cooling the lower end of the market.
Regional and Market Activity Trends
The Activity Index, which measures the ratio of pending listings to total active and pending listings, now stands at 19.6%, compared with 22.4% a year ago — a 12.8% decline. That places the overall market solidly in a contraction phase, signaling slower turnover and reduced urgency among buyers.
Within that broader measure, new construction remains stronger, with a 26.71% Activity Index, while resale activity sits much lower at 16.69%. That divide reflects how builders continue to drive transactions through incentives and competitive pricing, while resale sellers often face more price sensitivity and longer listing durations.
Across Austin-area ZIP codes, only two markets are in expansion (Activity Index above 30%), while a majority — 27 ZIP codes — are in contraction, and another 26 are in the crisis/freeze zone below 15%. This dispersion clearly illustrates how localized the slowdown has become: new-build-heavy suburbs such as Leander and Kyle are balancing new supply with demand, while inner-city Austin ZIPs show uneven momentum depending on price band and inventory depth.
Supply and Demand Balance
Austin’s Months of Inventory — a measure of how long it would take to sell current supply at the current pace — has risen to 5.77 months, up 14.4% from last year’s 5.04 months. Historically, 5 to 6 months indicates a balanced market, but given how quickly inventory has grown, the trend is moving toward a mild buyer’s advantage.
Austin’s year-over-year change in inventory is modest at +2.5%, but its year-to-date growth is more substantial at +23.8%, underscoring how supply has steadily built through 2025. In the city breakdown, areas like Lockhart, Hutto, and Del Valle have seen inventory more than double since last year, while others such as Lago Vista and Driftwood have experienced significant declines as listings normalize after earlier surges.
Segmented by time-on-market, about 13 cities and 28 ZIP codes are in the neutral zone, meaning homes are taking roughly 150 to 207 days to sell. Only three cities fall in the seller acceleration range, while eight cities and 20 ZIPs now sit firmly in buyer control, where properties linger for 270 days or more.
Market Efficiency and Buyer Behavior
Two efficiency metrics further highlight the shift in Austin’s housing market. The Absorption Rate — the percentage of active listings that sell in a given month — stands at 12.4%, far below the historical average of 31.7%. This indicates that homes are taking longer to sell, and only about one in eight listings are going under contract in a given cycle.
The Market Flow Score (MFS), a composite measure of demand, turnover, and absorption, now reads 2.75, compared with a long-term average of 6.58. That score encapsulates the overall market mood: transactions are still happening, but the flow of activity is slow, methodical, and cautious. Buyers have options, and sellers who price ahead of the curve are the ones still closing deals.
Cumulative sold data through October shows 25,664 closings, down 3.2% year-over-year but still 7.4% above the long-term average, indicating a healthier pace than the national trend. However, on a per-capita basis, Austin’s cumulative sold count is 20.8% below average, and sales per Realtor are down 23.7%, suggesting that competition among agents is tightening even as transaction volume remains stable.
Long-Term Outlook
The current phase of the Austin real estate market looks like the midpoint in a longer correction cycle — not a crash, but a necessary recalibration after record-setting growth. The fundamentals remain solid: strong job creation, population inflows, and a tech sector that continues to anchor the region’s long-term growth. However, affordability remains the defining challenge. Even with a median price of $435,000, the cost of ownership remains high relative to local wages, and mortgage rates in the 6.5%–7% range continue to constrain purchasing power.
If appreciation resumes at the long-term average of 4.8%, Austin could return to its prior peak by late 2030. But the path there will likely feature continued volatility — occasional spurts of demand when rates dip, followed by renewed slowdowns when supply catches up. For agents, this is a time to sharpen market knowledge and pricing strategy. For investors, it’s a moment to re-enter the market selectively, focusing on long-hold opportunities where rental yields can offset slower appreciation in the near term.
What It Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, the Austin housing forecast is finally aligning with reality. There’s more inventory, less bidding pressure, and the ability to negotiate again. The expanding Months of Inventory and falling Activity Index both mean that patience is being rewarded.
For sellers, the message is clear: price competitively or risk being left behind. With nearly 60% of active listings already reducing prices, today’s buyers are well-informed and cautious. Strategic pricing, professional presentation, and market timing will make the difference between being part of the 12% that sell each month or the 88% that sit.
For real estate professionals, the story is about adaptation. The Austin real estate forecast now favors skill over speed — analytical pricing, buyer education, and negotiation will define success through the winter season.
Conclusion
Austin’s housing market in late 2025 is not weak — it’s rational. The correction phase has filtered out excess speculation and reset expectations on both sides of the table. With stable population growth, strong employment, and builders managing supply responsibly, Austin remains one of the most data-resilient markets in the nation.
