The Austin housing market continues to balance between resilience and challenge, with active listings rising above last year’s levels while demand measures lag behind historic norms.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for October 1, 2025.​

Market Overview

As of October 1, 2025, there are 16,408 active residential listings across the Austin metro, up 14.1% from 2024’s 14,382. While this is below the summer peak of 18,146 in June, the higher year-over-year inventory underscores the ongoing correction from the overheated pandemic market. Notably, 59% of listings have experienced at least one price drop, a clear signal that sellers are adjusting expectations to align with buyer behavior.

Pending sales tell a different story. At 3,902 pending contracts, activity is 2.9% lower than last year’s 4,020, despite more inventory being available. This imbalance is captured in the Activity Index, now at 19.2% versus 21.8% a year ago, representing a 12.1% decline in buyer activity relative to supply. In simple terms, listings are sitting longer, and the pace of contract signings isn’t keeping up with new inventory.

Housing Prices

Prices remain well below their May 2022 peak. The average sold price in September was $550,912, down about 19.2% from the peak of $681,939. The median sold price stands at $417,000, marking a 24.2% drop from the May 2022 high of $550,000. This represents a loss of approximately $133,000 in median value from peak pricing.

Measured against three years ago, median prices are still down 11.3%, showing how the correction has not just erased peak-era gains but also cut into longer-term appreciation. For context, Austin’s 25-year compound appreciation rate is 4.66% annually. Using that trajectory, it would take about 77 months (until early 2032) for today’s median home price to recover to the prior peak of roughly $551,822.

The distribution of price changes highlights a split market. Homes in the bottom quartile are down 4.3% year-over-year, while those in the top quartile have gained about 2.5%. This suggests that higher-end homes are holding value better than entry-level properties, reflecting ongoing affordability challenges and a larger share of price reductions in the lower tiers.

Regional Trends

Across the metro area, supply pressures vary by city. Austin proper sits at 5.33 months of inventory, up only 1.3% from last year, but surrounding suburbs tell a more dramatic story. Places like Del Valle (up 133% to 5.68 months), Lockhart (up 98% to 4.54 months), and Jarrell (up 68% to 4.91 months) show how suburban supply is surging faster than local demand. This widening gap underscores how builders and resale sellers outside the urban core are facing stiffer headwinds.

Cumulatively, 41,387 new listings have hit the market year-to-date, 5.6% more than 2024 and nearly 25% above the long-term average. Meanwhile, cumulative pending sales of 34,287 are down 2.1% year-over-year, though still slightly above average. The net effect is a 7,100-unit surplus of new listings versus contracts signed in 2025, tilting the market firmly in buyers’ favor.

List-to-Sale Price Performance

The monthly new listing-to-pending ratio is holding at 0.71, well below the 25-year historical average of 0.82. This means that for every 100 new homes listed, only about 71 are going under contract. For perspective, during peak seller’s market years, this ratio regularly ran above 1.0, with more contracts being signed than listings entering the market. Today’s ratio confirms that sellers face steeper competition and must price aggressively to secure buyers.

Peak Value Trends

Looking back, the gap between current values and May 2022’s peak remains stark. A $550,000 home at the peak is now worth closer to $417,000, translating into a significant loss of equity for recent buyers. The absorption rate—the share of active listings selling in a given period—is just 15.9%, compared to a historic norm of 31.8%. This drop illustrates that while inventory is elevated, demand is not absorbing it quickly.

The Market Flow Score (MFS) is 4.76, well below the historical average of 6.59. This composite measure captures the efficiency of turnover in Austin real estate. A sub-5 score signals a sluggish market where homes take longer to sell and buyers exert more negotiating power.

Implications for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors

For buyers, today’s conditions offer rare leverage. With nearly 60% of listings showing price drops and inventory stretching close to six months, there’s room to negotiate not just price but also concessions such as closing cost credits and repair allowances. Buyers should recognize that while prices may feel “cheaper” compared to the peak, the long-term appreciation rate suggests patience will be required for equity recovery.

Sellers, on the other hand, face a reality check. Overpricing remains the fastest path to extended market time. The combination of higher inventory and a soft Activity Index means pricing competitively from day one is critical. The data confirms that homes aligned with market expectations—especially in the upper quartile—still move, while those lingering without adjustments get overlooked.

Investors should note the divergence between price segments. The relative stability in higher-end homes may offer insulation against future declines, but the real opportunities may lie in entry-level housing where values have dropped more sharply. As mortgage rates fluctuate, the widening spread between cap rates and treasury yields will determine when institutional capital re-enters the market in force.

Conclusion

The Austin housing market on October 1, 2025, reflects a shifting balance of power. Inventory is climbing, contracts are slightly down, and pricing remains nearly 20–25% off the peak. While conditions are far from the frenzy of 2021–2022, the long-term fundamentals of Austin real estate remain intact. Buyers enjoy leverage, sellers face pressure, and investors should keep a close eye on absorption metrics as the market moves toward equilibrium.